AFL 2025 Season Preview: Predictions and Insights

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Welcome to Why Is It So? Your last defence for common sense with your co-hosts

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Paul Zammett and Vince Locizzano.

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Hello Vince, it's time again for the AFL to open the gates and let the people in.

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Exactly Paul, it's that time of year. It's going to be another exciting AFL

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season I reckon Paul. Like every year. Yeah, let's face it.

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I am champing at the bit at the moment, especially after all the cricket we've had.

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Well, we've been waiting, what is it now? Probably it'll be four and a half months so far.

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No, it'll be five months roughly before we play our first game.

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And at the moment, 10 days from today.

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So where do you think it's all going to finish?

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Who will it be this year? Well, that's the $64 million question, isn't it?

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Look, I think that even though they are, if you like, littered with talented

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players, the Brisbane Lions are going to be hard-pressed to cover the loss of

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Joe Danaher, who was so instrumental in their success last year.

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So he's decided to retire, leave at the top, as they say.

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They're going to have to cover for him. I'm not sure that they'll be able to

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quite do that when it really matters in the finals.

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I've got some young up-and-coming players coming through. But I think they'll

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definitely finish in the top four, but I can't see them quite winning the premiership.

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I don't think he was as good as you were making, haven't you?

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He played some good games, but there was a lot of games he didn't play well.

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He was probably the most instrumental player in obtaining that success.

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But he wasn't like that for the whole year. Well, I'm not saying he was like

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that for the whole year, but when it really counts...

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Is when you're playing finals. And he literally won a game off his own boot

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in Sydney against GWS when, you know, I think Brisbane were 44 points down halfway

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through the third quarter.

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And look, for all money, like, they were gone. And yet he was the one that really

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stood up when it counted and kicked some clutch goals when they really needed

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it and helped to get them over the line.

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So he won't be there. All I'm saying is, is I know one player doesn't make a

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team and one player is not the only reason why you win a flag.

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But there are certain positions on the ground and certain types of players that

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when you lose them, it's very hard to replace them.

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And I still reckon they'll be up there, but I'm just not sure that they'll be

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good enough to win back-to-back premierships.

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It's hard enough to win back-to-back anyway, even if it was still there.

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So what I'm trying to say is I think there'll be a couple of other sides that

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are going to be hungry enough to really challenge for the premiership this year.

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I think GWS is prime. They've been knocking on the door now for a couple of years. But they choked.

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No, last year they lost two very, very close finals.

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And of course, Brisbane, who won last year, they lost the grand final the previous

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year by only four points.

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So it's those sorts of close losses that can really provide the burning desire

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in the players to make up for that pain and that agony, if you like, of losing.

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And really provide the inspiration to go one better the following year.

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When you've had the heartbreaking loss like Brisbane did against Collingwood

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two years ago, that's what can often provide the inspiration,

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and that's what happened.

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They ended up making it to the grand final again, but this time they made it count.

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So I guess what I'm saying is I'm expecting those teams that have experienced

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some heartbreak to go one better and to really put their best foot forward this year.

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So GWS is one of them. And at what?

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No, no, no. I think Brisbane will be up in the top four, but I think it'll be GWS.

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And I think the other team that went very, very close was Geelong and they won

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the premiership in 2022. So.

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I'm expecting those two teams to play off, Geelong and GWS.

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Really? Yeah. That's a very interesting... I'm very respectful of Geelong.

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I think they've got the best coach in the AFL by a significant margin.

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Rate him very highly, Chris Scott.

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And the way they've recruited and turned over their list from having some of

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those old players eventually retire, etc.

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For example, Tom Hawkins has retired.

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He didn't have a very good year last year anyway, so I think he'd very much

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reached the end. Now they've replaced him with some up-and-coming young players.

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And I think, yeah, I think they're ready to go again.

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So, look, I could be wrong, but I think they're one of those clubs,

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along with the Sydney Swans, that just find a way to always contest and always

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be right up there when the whips are cracking in September. How do you rate Hawthorne?

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Well, that was the other club I was going to say I think is ready to get to the top four.

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Now, last year, what they did is surprise a lot of people, not you,

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because you predicted that they'd rise up the ladder, but they did in fact go

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from a bottom four club in 2023 to rise up into the finals in 2024.

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Now, they made it into sixth, I think it was, on the ladder,

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and they won their first final, the elimination final, it's the Western Bulldogs,

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but then they fell against Port Adelaide in the second week of the final.

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So they made it into the bottom part of the eight. And I think this year they're

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ready to take the next step up and get into the top four.

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So I expect them to get into a preliminary final situation this year. So there's my four team.

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GWS, which I think will win, Geelong, Hawthorne, and Brisbane Lions.

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They're my top four. What about you?

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Well, I don't know why you didn't mention Collingwood, because I think Collingwood

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are going to be there. Oh, okay. Surprise, surprise.

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Well, we're still in – we're only in our fourth year of a five-year play.

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I think Collingwood is too reliant on too few now. Well, no, we're not really.

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And I don't like their lack of key position forwards either.

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I'm glad you asked me about this.

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Don't forget, we've taken in young guys, Ash Johnson and Markov.

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They've come from another club. Alec Markov, yeah.

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I think his first name is Oleg. Oleg, yeah.

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And then from the National Draft, they've got Joel Cochran, Charlie West and

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William Hayes. You've done your homework here, Paul.

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I have. And these are all young kids, right? Yeah.

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There are a couple of the oldies, for instance, they've got,

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uh, Tim Membry from St. Kilda. Yes.

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Again, that was to try and plug up a gaping hole in their forward line. Yeah.

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Which is a lack of key position. Now, he's on the wrong side of 30,

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and he's had his troubles as well with different issues.

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So is he going to be the answer? I don't know. I think Tom will tell.

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Well, this Dan Houston came from Port Adelaide. That will help.

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Dan Houston coming over will help. He's 28. Yeah.

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And then we've got Harry Perryman.

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From TWS. Yes, he's a good player. And we've got Houston from Port Adelaide.

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Well, we mentioned him just now.

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So I'm just having a look. Yeah, you're trying to plug up holes,

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but I just don't know whether Collingwood... Look, I expect them to make the eight again.

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I mean, they had their premiership hangover, if you want to call it that,

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last year. Just missed out on making the eight.

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But I expect them to get back into the eight, but only into the bottom half of the eight.

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I don't think that they're going to be as good as Brisbane, GWS.

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Hawthorne, and Geelong.

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Let me surprise you again. I think North Melbourne will get into the eight.

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Really? North Melbourne, the cellar dwellers. Yes.

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They've been down in the bottom four or bottom six, probably bottom four,

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for probably five years at least.

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So it's about time they came out of the cellar. And I think you'll find they

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will be in the eight this year.

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You pride yourself on making these predictions, though. Well, I do.

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You like to predict the team that's going to elevate from bottom four or bottom

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six right up into the eight.

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So you think North will make the eight? That's a big call.

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So they only won about, what, maybe three games, four games last year?

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Hawthorne had only won three or four. Oh.

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In the year before, three or four. And even at the start of last year,

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they were still, yeah, halfway through the season, they still were down underneath.

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Until they sort of had that winning streak.

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So you'd be surprised how these things can happen.

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And I... Look, I will say this. I like the fact that North Melbourne have brought

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in some experienced players that have experienced success, premiership success from other clubs.

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So they brought in Jack Darling from West Coast. He played in their premiership of 2018.

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Can't believe that's already seven years ago. They brought in Luke Parker from

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Sydney, who played in last year's grand final for the Sydney Swans,

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a former captain of the Sydney Swans.

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So he's going to add a lot of experience to North Melbourne's team as well. So I like that.

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I think that that's a good move to bring in experienced players like that.

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But I don't know that they're going to get right up into the eight yet. Maybe next year, maybe.

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I don't think they'll make that issue. They'll win the flag. I thought.

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Anyway, so there you go. What about the other teams? Have you done your homework

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on the other teams you think that'll make it? I have. Who have we left out so far?

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Well, you haven't given me your top four yet.

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Well, I do believe Brisbane might be there. Hawthorne would definitely be there.

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And I don't know about GWS.

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Really? Not quite sure. You know who I think might be another one that played

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reasonably well last year that not Benningfinger talked about? Adelaide.

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Well, that was the other team I predicted. In fact, a lot of people are predicting

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that we'll rise up the ladder and potentially get into the eight. So yes, I like them too.

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Yeah. So yeah. Now they only won eight games last year. It was very interesting.

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They finished 15th, which is technically bottom four.

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However, it's interesting, you know, they were three, roughly three games or

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three wins less than the team above them, which was Melbourne.

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So Melbourne won 11 games and finished in 14th. Adelaide only won eight.

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They had eight wins in a draw. and then below them is West Coast on five wins.

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That's another – Five wins.

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That could be another sleeper, you know. There were three – it was all like

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three games short of the team above them and three games clear of the one underneath them.

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That could be another one that could be a sleeper, you know.

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Oh, now you're getting a bit too ambitious. But West Coast as well? No, no.

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No, I'm not saying they're getting to the eight, but I'm saying – Well, there you go.

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In fact, North Melbourne – by the way, just to let you know,

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North Melbourne actually only won three games last year. Now, to make the eight...

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You've got to win. Well, have a look at Carlton. Just made the eight last year.

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They won 13 games. So they've got to go from three wins to 13 wins in one season.

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Do you really think North Melbourne's going to do that? Hang on a sec.

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You see, the difference between North Melbourne and Carlton, there's no difference.

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Neither of them won the grand final. Yeah, but what I'm trying to say is you're

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expecting North Melbourne to go from only winning three games last year to winning

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at least 13 games to make the eight this year. I refer to Hawthorne. They did.

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Because of the year before, if you have a look at that, there'll be about three

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or four games they won the previous year. Okay. And they were getting flogged. Sometimes.

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Sometimes, yeah. They didn't get flogged too many. Well, we'll revisit this.

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We'll revisit this at the end of the year, and we'll see if your predictions came out to be true.

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So, okay, as I said, I think GWS, Brisbane, Geelong, and Hawthorne will be the top four.

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So, therefore, I'm expecting Sydney, who finished on top of the ladder last

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year to drop out of the top four.

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Same with Port Adelaide who finished second.

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And the other two teams that made the finals were Western Bulldogs and Carlton.

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Now, Western Bulldogs and Carlton have both had horrendous pre-seasons with injuries.

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And I think that's going to take its toll.

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So look, my other four teams for the top eight are, I'm actually expecting Port

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Adelaide to drop right out this year.

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I don't like the situation with their coach. You know how he's announced that

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this will be his last year and they've already announced the guy that's going to take over from him.

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At the start of next year. So Ken Hinckley is always stating that this will be last year as coach.

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And Josh Carr is going to take over from him at the end of this year.

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Well, to me, that just loses the coach's authority for the whole season.

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I just can't see how this is going to be good for Port Adelaide.

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I reckon they'll probably drop out of the eight altogether.

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So there are teams that I think will make up the rest of the eight.

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Sydney, I think Sydney will still finish in the eight. And I do think Carlton

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will make the eight, but only in the bottom part of the eight.

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We really should be up in the top four, but with the injuries that we've copped

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already, I just don't know that that's going to happen.

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And the other two teams that I think will make it, as I said,

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Adelaide, I expect them to rise up the ladder and make the eight.

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And when did Gold Coast finish last? Well, Gold Coast finished 13th on 11 wins.

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So there are a chance to make the eight as well.

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But the other one I'm going to select is Fremantle. I think Fremantle's got

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the, yeah, they were only half a game out of the eight last year.

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And I think that with a little bit of luck, they've got a very talented list.

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They've recruited some really good players like Shai Bolton from Richmond, Liam Baker.

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I think, I'm sorry, Liam Baker went to West Coast. So yeah, Shai Bolton from

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Richmond's come across. I think he'll make a big difference to their forward

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line. Is he from Western Australia?

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Yeah. So I'm expecting those teams to fill up the eight. How about you? Okay.

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Without, not in any order at the moment, Collingwood. Actually,

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I'll give Carlton theirs, Hawthorne, be the third.

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Mm-hmm. And I think Brisbane.

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That'll be my four. Okay. From there. So fifth through to eighth?

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Yeah, you have Dole Coast.

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Really? You think they're going to make the finals for the first time in their

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history this year? Yep. Geelong.

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Yeah. Well, you'd better put in your Adelaide Crows and your North Melbourne

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and your West Coast because. Adelaide.

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You've got nine teams in your top eight. Seven.

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And North Melbourne. Sorry, you're not going to take West Coast to not get there.

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No, I didn't say that. You think they're a sleeper? Yeah, they are,

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but they're not good enough to get into the eighth. Okay. But North Melbourne

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are? North Melbourne definitely.

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Okay. They will definitely be there. Well, I actually made a mistake earlier.

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I think I forgot to mention Collingwood.

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So I'll leave Freenantle out and I'll put Collingwood in still.

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Forgive me. That could be the one that you want. No, no, no.

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So my fifth to eighth will actually be Sydney, Sydney and Carlton,

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and then I said Adelaide and Collingwood. So there's my top eight.

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And where have the rest finished? Oh, who cares?

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I'd say there's one club that will probably be savage on their coach if they

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don't make it this year, and that's Essendon.

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I reckon if they don't make it this year, there's going to be some severe pressure.

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In fact, I reckon there might be a lot of coach sackings this year.

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See, the Western Bulldogs, Luke Beveridge, is in the last year of his contract.

00:14:42.163 --> 00:14:45.703
He's going to have to win it. If he doesn't make the eight. No, forget the eight.

00:14:45.863 --> 00:14:49.223
If he doesn't win the grand final. Oh, come on, that's a bit rich.

00:14:49.403 --> 00:14:52.743
No, he will be out. If he gets him in the top four, he won't be out.

00:14:52.763 --> 00:14:53.923
They won't renew his contract.

00:14:54.283 --> 00:14:58.343
They won't sack him. They just won't renew the contract. What do you mean they won't sack him?

00:14:58.423 --> 00:15:01.823
Well, it's not. If they don't renew his contract, that's effectively sacking

00:15:01.823 --> 00:15:03.823
him. No, that's his contract's finished.

00:15:04.003 --> 00:15:06.303
Yeah. Yeah, but we're not giving you any contract.

00:15:06.543 --> 00:15:09.463
But I'm talking about sacking him. Okay, so they'll replace him then.

00:15:09.643 --> 00:15:11.983
Yes, they'll replace him over here. All right, well. Okay.

00:15:12.183 --> 00:15:15.303
A lot of people would still say you've been sacked. We're not going to give you another contract.

00:15:15.763 --> 00:15:21.223
No, because if you've got more contract to go, if you're contracted for another

00:15:21.223 --> 00:15:24.343
two or three years and they kick you out, you're sacked. You're being technical here.

00:15:24.423 --> 00:15:28.483
So what you're really saying is that you're only sacked if your contract has

00:15:28.483 --> 00:15:31.283
been terminated prematurely, in your view. Yes.

00:15:31.403 --> 00:15:33.763
But if you let the contract run out, you haven't been sacked.

00:15:33.823 --> 00:15:37.223
You just haven't been given another contract. Oh, they'll probably resign anyway.

00:15:37.823 --> 00:15:41.163
So you can't be called sacked. So, look, the Western World Roles who made it

00:15:41.163 --> 00:15:44.103
into six last year, I don't think they'll make it this year.

00:15:44.103 --> 00:15:47.723
I think they've lost too many good players. They lost Bailey Smith to Geelong.

00:15:48.083 --> 00:15:51.763
They lost Jack McRae to St Kilda. And there's a lot of unrest for you.

00:15:51.903 --> 00:15:55.403
And there seems to be a bit of, yeah, a few rumblings. I know you're saying

00:15:55.403 --> 00:15:56.423
that everything's okay.

00:15:56.803 --> 00:16:00.243
Even the Melbourne guy, what's his name? Simon Goodwin. Both the same.

00:16:00.543 --> 00:16:01.423
Everything's fine here.

00:16:02.203 --> 00:16:04.863
Let's move on. We've got a wonderful country here in our club.

00:16:06.523 --> 00:16:09.783
Please move on. Nothing to see here. Nothing to see here. But,

00:16:09.783 --> 00:16:11.203
yeah, it's the old saying.

00:16:11.869 --> 00:16:15.569
Well, see, there's an interesting club, Melbourne. I mean, they only won the

00:16:15.569 --> 00:16:18.649
premiership in 2021, and yet they've dropped down last year,

00:16:18.689 --> 00:16:21.349
down to 14th. A lot of people would have had them in their top eight.

00:16:21.629 --> 00:16:25.789
But, yeah, I think some of their off-field issues have come back to bite them,

00:16:25.909 --> 00:16:27.369
and certain players have left.

00:16:27.589 --> 00:16:30.989
And interestingly, Christian Petrarca, probably their best player,

00:16:31.129 --> 00:16:35.789
has decided to stay on, mainly because he's contracted, and they didn't want to trade him.

00:16:36.309 --> 00:16:40.409
But you do wonder whether he's really all that happy. Now, if there's one club

00:16:40.409 --> 00:16:44.709
that you fear for in terms of how they're going to go this year, which one would it be?

00:16:44.869 --> 00:16:50.009
How do you mean you fear for it? As in you think that they're going to have a really bad year. Oh.

00:16:50.769 --> 00:16:54.009
I mean, the one I'm going to mention is the one that's probably obvious to all,

00:16:54.129 --> 00:16:56.929
and that's Richmond. They had such an exodus of players.

00:16:57.189 --> 00:17:00.229
A lot of their best players are gone. Shai Bolton's gone to Fremantle.

00:17:00.289 --> 00:17:02.429
Daniel Rioli went to Gold Coast.

00:17:02.629 --> 00:17:06.829
Liam Baker went to West Coast. They've been left with hardly any senior players.

00:17:06.829 --> 00:17:10.449
And one of their best senior players that did stay, which is Noah Balter,

00:17:10.869 --> 00:17:14.689
well, he's just gone down with a bad injury. So you do wonder whether Richmond

00:17:14.689 --> 00:17:18.889
will be suffering some pretty significant defeats. You think St. Kilda will be any good?

00:17:19.229 --> 00:17:21.949
They're an interesting one, St. Kilda, aren't they? I mean, look,

00:17:21.949 --> 00:17:25.389
I haven't put them in my top eight, but I just, the problem with St.

00:17:25.469 --> 00:17:30.249
Kilda is if you have a look at their list, no one stands out as a really A-grade player.

00:17:30.469 --> 00:17:35.389
I just cannot find any player on their list that I would classify as really

00:17:35.389 --> 00:17:40.909
top-not. A-grade, like Rewold and... All Australian type category.

00:17:41.109 --> 00:17:44.429
Yes, they've got some good players, like Max King there, full forward.

00:17:44.689 --> 00:17:47.509
You'd say, yes, he's a good player, potentially A-grade.

00:17:48.022 --> 00:17:53.022
I don't think he's there yet. Their captain, Jack Steele, is probably his best days are behind him.

00:17:53.102 --> 00:17:56.322
Yes, he was a very good player, but hardly what you'd call A-grade,

00:17:56.642 --> 00:17:57.842
all-Australian type player.

00:17:58.002 --> 00:18:01.082
So I don't think their list is all that strong.

00:18:01.322 --> 00:18:04.782
So if they're going to get some wins, they're going to need to really rely on

00:18:04.782 --> 00:18:10.302
a significant team effort to make things happen on the scoreboard.

00:18:10.442 --> 00:18:13.742
Neat their coach, how much has he got left on his? Ross Lyon.

00:18:13.982 --> 00:18:15.922
Oh, he's still got another couple of years at least.

00:18:16.422 --> 00:18:18.442
Well, they probably put up with him like first for those two.

00:18:18.462 --> 00:18:22.722
Well, they're the ones that went and poached him and gave him a five-year contract.

00:18:23.522 --> 00:18:27.722
So I think they're putting a lot of faith in Ross Lyon. I think the pressure's going to be on.

00:18:28.002 --> 00:18:31.282
If they don't make the finals this year, I think the pressure's going to be

00:18:31.282 --> 00:18:34.722
really on. But we've got two changes in coach next year. Next year? With Adelaide.

00:18:35.442 --> 00:18:40.442
That we already know of. Okay, so Paul Adelaide, King Hickley's already said this is my last year.

00:18:40.642 --> 00:18:43.622
He's in his last year. Oh, we don't know that. We know he hasn't got any more.

00:18:43.622 --> 00:18:45.822
We know that he's in the last year of his contract.

00:18:45.922 --> 00:18:49.382
We know that he's not going to get a new contract unless they win the grand final.

00:18:49.562 --> 00:18:52.882
All right. Fine. And there's been plenty of coaches who have got a grand final.

00:18:52.882 --> 00:18:56.382
The other one is the free medal coach. Did you hear about that?

00:18:56.782 --> 00:19:01.182
No, what happened there? Well, Justin Longmuir, who's entering the last year

00:19:01.182 --> 00:19:03.882
of his contract, in order to, if you like,

00:19:04.322 --> 00:19:08.822
try and put some cold water on the media speculation about him,

00:19:09.082 --> 00:19:12.342
they've made the announcement that he's no longer going to be on a contract

00:19:12.342 --> 00:19:16.022
and that he's just simply employed at the club as an employee.

00:19:16.282 --> 00:19:22.722
So there's no specific timeframe as to when he's employed or how long he's employed for.

00:19:23.102 --> 00:19:27.802
He can either walk away or they can decide to get rid of him at any time.

00:19:28.082 --> 00:19:29.682
Now, there might be some clauses there.

00:19:30.441 --> 00:19:34.241
You know, if the club decides to terminate him, he might have to be paid out,

00:19:34.421 --> 00:19:38.001
I don't know, six months worth of contract or three months worth.

00:19:38.161 --> 00:19:41.761
I'm not sure. That could be a third one. Well, potentially. I think.

00:19:42.021 --> 00:19:45.281
Because to me, in order to try and alleviate the media attention,

00:19:45.481 --> 00:19:48.941
they're actually going to bring more of it on by only putting him on staff rather

00:19:48.941 --> 00:19:52.721
than giving him a specific contract for a specific period of time.

00:19:53.121 --> 00:19:55.601
If it's on staff, does that not count in there?

00:19:56.141 --> 00:20:00.421
No, it still counts. But the point is, there's no contract.

00:20:00.721 --> 00:20:05.401
See, most coaches are not actually employed at the club as an employee.

00:20:05.781 --> 00:20:10.521
They are, if you like, subcontractors to the club. So the club enters into a

00:20:10.521 --> 00:20:15.941
contract with that individual coach, like a subcontractor would be to a builder, for example.

00:20:16.261 --> 00:20:20.761
And that coach coaches for that length of time. And unless the club decides

00:20:20.761 --> 00:20:24.081
to terminate the contract, the club then has to pay out the contract.

00:20:24.301 --> 00:20:29.921
So what putting them on staff does is it probably alleviates the issue of having

00:20:29.921 --> 00:20:32.561
to pay out coaches a massive sum of money.

00:20:33.121 --> 00:20:38.161
This year, it's going to look like any coach that doesn't perform is out of a job.

00:20:38.381 --> 00:20:42.761
No, I don't think that's – if anyone's safe, if anyone's safe,

00:20:42.781 --> 00:20:48.881
you'd say, well, it's the first year, look at Sydney. Now, John Longmire, he stepped down.

00:20:49.341 --> 00:20:55.001
So you've got Dean Cox has taken over. So, I mean, he's technically on a hiding

00:20:55.001 --> 00:20:57.821
to nothing because they finished first on the ladder at the end of the home

00:20:57.821 --> 00:21:02.001
in the lay season and they finished in a grand final, even though they lost that grand final.

00:21:02.181 --> 00:21:05.261
How can he improve on that? The only way he can improve on that is to win the

00:21:05.261 --> 00:21:07.861
premiership. Yeah. Any other result...

00:21:08.386 --> 00:21:12.366
Is going to be seen as a photo. He's got to be given at least a couple of years.

00:21:12.366 --> 00:21:13.866
He's got to be given a couple of years.

00:21:14.446 --> 00:21:18.486
Yeah, that's a new one. So he's probably safe. He's safe. The Jerome coach,

00:21:18.606 --> 00:21:20.206
Chris Scott, safe as houses.

00:21:21.366 --> 00:21:24.966
Absolutely safe as houses. I'm not sure how long. I think it's got at least

00:21:24.966 --> 00:21:25.806
another couple of years.

00:21:26.026 --> 00:21:32.006
But the point is, yeah, he could just about nominate when and how long he wants to contract for.

00:21:32.426 --> 00:21:36.606
If things don't go well, he may just walk away. Well, that would be his decision.

00:21:36.606 --> 00:21:39.866
I don't think the club's going to be sacking Chris Scott. No, I agree with you there.

00:21:40.566 --> 00:21:44.946
AWS's coach has done a fantastic job, Adam Kingsley, so far since he took over.

00:21:45.106 --> 00:21:47.466
He's got them into the finals every year.

00:21:47.666 --> 00:21:51.766
And really, as I said earlier, I expect them to actually go the whole way this year.

00:21:51.986 --> 00:21:54.126
Brisbane Lions, well, Chris Fagan, of course.

00:21:54.686 --> 00:21:59.266
Granddad, as some people call him, because he's in his 60s. If they drop down

00:21:59.266 --> 00:22:02.906
the ladder significantly, I can see him walking away. But I don't think they'll sack him.

00:22:03.066 --> 00:22:06.706
No, no, they won't sack him. I think he will sack him. He might say,

00:22:06.846 --> 00:22:08.346
I don't know. Don't forget he's 60-something years old.

00:22:08.466 --> 00:22:13.086
62, 63, yeah. So it's a fair age for a coach. No, it is. And so,

00:22:13.306 --> 00:22:14.786
you know, he won his grand final.

00:22:15.046 --> 00:22:17.746
He's going for back-to-back this year. He goes back-to-back.

00:22:18.226 --> 00:22:22.026
Right. But if he doesn't. Unless they sort of. Unless they go close.

00:22:22.126 --> 00:22:24.306
Yeah. If they sort of finish in the top. But if they drop away.

00:22:24.446 --> 00:22:28.646
Like, if they finish out of the top four and only just scrape into the eight

00:22:28.646 --> 00:22:34.206
or, dare I say, even miss the eight, well, then I reckon he might re-evaluate his own future.

00:22:34.206 --> 00:22:38.666
But I still, even if they miss the eight, I can't see Brisbane sacking in one

00:22:38.666 --> 00:22:40.486
year after winning a premiership. Let's go through. Okay.

00:22:40.706 --> 00:22:44.126
Let's start from the top. Collingwood, you start? I'm going through the ladder

00:22:44.126 --> 00:22:47.206
of last year. No, I'm just going through the plus. All right. You do it your way.

00:22:47.626 --> 00:22:49.686
Collingwood? You always start with Collingwood.

00:22:50.146 --> 00:22:54.406
How about Adelaide? It starts at A in Adelaide, doesn't it? Well, no. It doesn't on here.

00:22:54.874 --> 00:22:59.154
Collingwood. What are you doing? Oh, right. Okay. Okay. GWS is safe.

00:22:59.394 --> 00:23:01.434
Yes. North Melbourne, you've got to say he's safe.

00:23:01.994 --> 00:23:05.934
Alistair Clarkson? Yeah. Entering year four in a five-year contract.

00:23:05.994 --> 00:23:09.254
First three years in. Well, the first year he was almost not doing it at all.

00:23:09.574 --> 00:23:14.154
Yeah. Yeah, I think he's pretty safe. He's on the end. I think Simon Goodwin's,

00:23:14.294 --> 00:23:18.774
if they don't make the eight, there's a chance they might decide to move him on. Sidney is okay.

00:23:19.074 --> 00:23:21.994
Oh, well, he's a first year of his turn. Adelaide playing well enough.

00:23:21.994 --> 00:23:23.614
I think he's safe. No, hang on.

00:23:23.814 --> 00:23:28.454
No. Now, Matthew Nix is in the last year of his contract, and Adelaide have

00:23:28.454 --> 00:23:32.774
not really done anything while he's been there. They've never made the final.

00:23:32.934 --> 00:23:37.514
So I think the pressure is really on for them to rouse up the ladder and at least make the eight.

00:23:37.894 --> 00:23:41.994
If they don't make the eight, I think that Matthew Nix might very well be moved

00:23:41.994 --> 00:23:43.594
on. Might be a merry-go-round.

00:23:44.294 --> 00:23:47.614
I think the coach is moving from club to club. Okay, let's say no.

00:23:47.834 --> 00:23:50.414
So we've got Melbourne and Adelaide maybe, West Coast.

00:23:50.674 --> 00:23:54.414
No, he's in his first year. That's Andrew McWalter.

00:23:54.714 --> 00:23:57.454
Bulldogs. Because Adam Simpson got sacked last year.

00:23:58.014 --> 00:24:01.134
Bulldogs. He's out. Jeez, you really want to see him out, don't you,

00:24:01.174 --> 00:24:03.574
Luke Beveridge? It all depends on how they go.

00:24:03.774 --> 00:24:07.314
Yeah, but he's got another year left in his contract.

00:24:07.554 --> 00:24:10.694
I don't think he'll last. Well, it depends on how they go. If they're in the

00:24:10.694 --> 00:24:12.534
top four, they're not going to sack him. Maybe.

00:24:12.914 --> 00:24:15.334
It all comes down to performance, doesn't it? Cargain.

00:24:16.894 --> 00:24:22.094
Michael Ross, he'd want to be up at least in the eight and challenging for top

00:24:22.094 --> 00:24:26.074
four because otherwise... He's working on... Well, he's got another year left

00:24:26.074 --> 00:24:27.714
on his contract after this year, so...

00:24:28.236 --> 00:24:31.716
I don't think they'll sack him, but the pressure will be right on for next year

00:24:31.716 --> 00:24:35.296
if Carlton don't do any good this year. St Kilda, similar situation.

00:24:35.456 --> 00:24:39.976
Ross Lyon, if they don't make the finals again this year, same.

00:24:40.276 --> 00:24:43.516
Brad Scott hasn't got them into the finals yet, and I think if he misses the

00:24:43.516 --> 00:24:45.696
finals again this year, pressure will be right on.

00:24:45.876 --> 00:24:49.496
Richmond, he's safe. No, he's safe. He's safe because he's only in his second

00:24:49.496 --> 00:24:52.256
year, and they're at the bottom of the ladder club at the moment, rebuilding.

00:24:52.496 --> 00:24:54.616
Port Adelaide. Port Adelaide, well, we know the change.

00:24:55.136 --> 00:25:00.316
Well, Ken Hickley, I almost think. You know the way I see the Ken Hinkley situation?

00:25:00.616 --> 00:25:03.736
He's saying, okay, I'm out of here. I know you don't want me anymore,

00:25:03.756 --> 00:25:06.136
but I'm going to coach for the last year of my contract.

00:25:06.416 --> 00:25:09.656
And if you don't want me here in advance of that, pay me out and I will.

00:25:09.896 --> 00:25:13.676
So they may very well replace him with Josh Carr earlier than you think.

00:25:13.916 --> 00:25:17.496
That might even be halfway. For example, if halfway through the year,

00:25:17.696 --> 00:25:20.136
they've only won two or three games and they've lost eight, well,

00:25:20.176 --> 00:25:21.136
they're not going to make the finals.

00:25:21.296 --> 00:25:24.996
So they may decide that in the best interest of the club, they might move him

00:25:24.996 --> 00:25:29.216
on halfway through the season and start rebuilding under this new coach rather

00:25:29.216 --> 00:25:31.856
than just sort of waste time with Ken Hinckley.

00:25:31.996 --> 00:25:35.656
The one you haven't gone through there, Fremantle, will I mention to you?

00:25:35.716 --> 00:25:40.836
He's now on staff, so he's no longer in any contract, but the pressure's on to make the finals.

00:25:40.976 --> 00:25:43.736
Geelong, he's okay? Oh, he's as safe as houses.

00:25:44.016 --> 00:25:47.956
Hawthorne's okay. Well, that's Sam Mitchell. Yes, I think he's very, very safe.

00:25:48.116 --> 00:25:51.596
Yeah, and the Gold Coast. Well, he's also very safe. That's Damien Hardwick.

00:25:51.596 --> 00:25:53.476
He's only in his, what, second year.

00:25:53.596 --> 00:25:56.536
So if you're a coach anyway and you're looking for a job, in the AFL.

00:25:56.556 --> 00:25:59.596
There's plenty of them. There are going to be five. Minimum. Minimum.

00:25:59.976 --> 00:26:03.976
Five. If there was no stone goal for these coaches that are under pressure,

00:26:04.436 --> 00:26:06.856
there might be about something like seven or eight.

00:26:07.196 --> 00:26:09.736
Yeah, well, there might be half of the clubs looking for a new coach.

00:26:09.816 --> 00:26:12.036
I'd say we've got a minimum of five.

00:26:12.216 --> 00:26:15.836
It's going to be an interesting sign for the media. Yeah, would someone please

00:26:15.836 --> 00:26:16.936
like to make an application?

00:26:17.236 --> 00:26:20.416
Can you imagine how much the media is going to be swarming all over this if

00:26:20.416 --> 00:26:21.536
clubs are not performing?

00:26:22.056 --> 00:26:25.776
I'll tell you right now, Now by the time we have that halfway mark roughly of

00:26:25.776 --> 00:26:29.696
the year where everyone's starting to get a bye, the clubs that are underperforming,

00:26:29.896 --> 00:26:32.676
you watch the media hounds will be going after.

00:26:33.719 --> 00:26:36.399
So I'm just going to say, let's make some long-term predictions.

00:26:37.039 --> 00:26:40.679
Who are the two grand final teams as far as you're concerned? This year? Yeah.

00:26:41.199 --> 00:26:45.399
I've mentioned nine. I said GWS and Geelong. I've got to say Collingwood.

00:26:46.399 --> 00:26:50.739
Of course you would. I think one. And I think Hawthorne will be there.

00:26:50.919 --> 00:26:54.719
So Collingwood and Hawthorne grand final. Possibly. And as a third,

00:26:54.939 --> 00:26:57.199
I think Brisbane could be back there.

00:26:57.339 --> 00:27:00.379
But yeah, I think Hawthorne will definitely be there.

00:27:00.839 --> 00:27:03.759
And I'd say Collingwood would be the answer to have the people,

00:27:03.979 --> 00:27:05.879
the team they played. What about you?

00:27:06.339 --> 00:27:10.099
Interesting. Now, like I said before, I think GWS and Geelong will play off

00:27:10.099 --> 00:27:12.379
in the grand final and I expect GWS to win it.

00:27:12.519 --> 00:27:16.659
As far as your Brownlow medal prediction for this year, who do you think is

00:27:16.659 --> 00:27:19.599
going to win that? Nick Day. Assuming everyone's fit.

00:27:21.259 --> 00:27:26.679
If Nick Dayclas plays the whole season. He's got it. Again, another Collingwood player.

00:27:26.939 --> 00:27:30.939
You're not biased in any way, Adam. Last year, they counted him.

00:27:31.099 --> 00:27:36.759
He lost by 4,000 bloody points. No, he broke the record for how many votes, and he lost.

00:27:37.319 --> 00:27:42.919
And not by one or two, either. Seven votes. Patrick Cripps, 45 votes. Exactly.

00:27:43.099 --> 00:27:46.879
Well, he's obviously very, very popular with the umpires, Mr. Patrick Cripps.

00:27:47.499 --> 00:27:53.679
Yes. Well, I think because he won last year's Brownlow for the second time,

00:27:53.799 --> 00:27:57.819
and with so many votes, and with so many people saying, hey,

00:27:57.979 --> 00:28:00.259
how does a player like this get so many votes?

00:28:00.479 --> 00:28:04.759
And there was a lot of games where he got three votes where he was not the best player on the ground.

00:28:05.059 --> 00:28:07.639
I'll tell you right now. He wasn't even worthy of the other.

00:28:07.719 --> 00:28:11.159
Yeah, I think he got a... There was even a game where he got two votes.

00:28:11.579 --> 00:28:14.019
And he didn't play. No, no, no. Just thought he didn't play.

00:28:14.599 --> 00:28:18.579
But I think he might have got 19 possessions, which is considered to be quite

00:28:18.579 --> 00:28:20.239
low for a midfielder of his capability.

00:28:20.954 --> 00:28:24.214
But they still gave him two votes. I think it was yesterday.

00:28:24.514 --> 00:28:28.074
70 of those kicks went to a goal. I don't think we're getting any favours next

00:28:28.074 --> 00:28:32.334
year. So I don't know. He's going to have to play out of his skin to win a third one. Yeah.

00:28:32.594 --> 00:28:34.734
Dacos has got to be going soon. You think Dacos did?

00:28:35.014 --> 00:28:41.314
They had a match, a stress match, not long ago, last week with Brisbane and Velcos.

00:28:41.634 --> 00:28:44.774
And Dacos apparently just burned up the track. Really?

00:28:44.994 --> 00:28:49.954
Yeah. But in a free to air, apparently he absolutely killed them. Really?

00:28:50.194 --> 00:28:53.874
Yeah. So if it can stay healthy, he will win it. Wow.

00:28:54.194 --> 00:29:01.694
Well, look, it's often the standout player in an average to middle of the road team.

00:29:01.774 --> 00:29:03.754
And that's what Carlton ended up being last year.

00:29:03.914 --> 00:29:07.294
I mean, Patrick Cripps, without Patrick Cripps, Carlton would not have made

00:29:07.294 --> 00:29:09.134
the eight. Brown by a medal proves that.

00:29:09.294 --> 00:29:13.194
Well, this is the point. I mean, for someone to get 45 votes in a team that

00:29:13.194 --> 00:29:17.254
finished eighth and only just scraped into eight, just goes to show you how

00:29:17.254 --> 00:29:20.494
heavily Carlton relies on Patrick Cripps to win games.

00:29:20.674 --> 00:29:24.514
So that's really, if you like, to me, the pointer.

00:29:24.774 --> 00:29:28.674
You've got to try and pick out the team that's got one standout because a lot

00:29:28.674 --> 00:29:32.634
of the better teams have got three and four and five players that take votes off each other.

00:29:32.774 --> 00:29:37.234
So I'm going to actually predict Marcus Bontempelli from the Western Bulldogs,

00:29:37.334 --> 00:29:41.594
who I think is their standout player and standout captain. I reckon he might

00:29:41.594 --> 00:29:44.094
be the one that will go one better this year.

00:29:44.234 --> 00:29:49.374
Whereas Dacos is in a team like Collingwood where, yes, he stands out,

00:29:49.514 --> 00:29:52.314
but there's also some other very good players. He's been there for three years

00:29:52.314 --> 00:29:56.454
and he's been in the running for the Brown Lake twice. Yes. Right.

00:29:56.754 --> 00:29:59.274
And the first year he won it as the best first year player. Yeah.

00:29:59.734 --> 00:30:02.194
So, you know, like. Well, they call it the rousing start. Yeah.

00:30:02.314 --> 00:30:03.514
They give him the rousing start. Yeah.

00:30:03.694 --> 00:30:10.694
But how much more can he do to get it? Unless he does a fist for the Olympics

00:30:10.694 --> 00:30:12.794
next year, I'll tell you what.

00:30:12.974 --> 00:30:17.514
He should have won it two years in a row. Well, everyone listening to this podcast

00:30:17.514 --> 00:30:21.814
will see how completely neutral you are, especially when it comes to Collingwood.

00:30:23.734 --> 00:30:28.134
As I've always said, no Collingwood, no AFL. Really? You really think that that's

00:30:28.134 --> 00:30:30.254
the case? No Collingwood, no AFL.

00:30:30.474 --> 00:30:34.454
Right. Is that why you get all of the best draws in terms of the fixture and

00:30:34.454 --> 00:30:39.014
you always play 15 games at the MCG and everyone that wants a blockbuster match

00:30:39.014 --> 00:30:42.914
into interstate always wants to play Collingwood. AFL's got to keep them out.

00:30:45.294 --> 00:30:49.454
And I'm sure that, Cray, I'm sure he thanks them. The coach. The coach.

00:30:49.754 --> 00:30:54.954
Thanks the AFL every day. He rings them up and says, hello, good morning, have a good day.

00:30:56.454 --> 00:30:59.774
Well, he's certainly giving a lot of favours being the coach of Collingwood,

00:30:59.854 --> 00:31:01.374
but there's also a lot of pressure to perform.

00:31:01.743 --> 00:31:04.803
That's the thing about the big clubs. You do. And there's none bigger.

00:31:05.063 --> 00:31:08.203
Well, yeah, well, maybe, maybe.

00:31:09.703 --> 00:31:13.363
All right, well, we look forward to a big season coming up and let's hope the

00:31:13.363 --> 00:31:14.923
best team wins so long as it's Carlton.

00:31:16.923 --> 00:31:21.583
No. Okay, Vince, I think we've dissected it as much as we can.

00:31:21.923 --> 00:31:24.743
Well, almost. We'll see what happens at the end of the year.

00:31:24.883 --> 00:31:27.623
Or if you like to have a look at it halfway through the season. Yes.

00:31:27.823 --> 00:31:31.403
We may even give you the chance to change your predictions. Well,

00:31:31.663 --> 00:31:36.903
come the finals, we might do another podcast on AFL and see what we think after

00:31:36.903 --> 00:31:38.523
the final eight has been determined.

00:31:39.103 --> 00:31:43.063
Who's going to play the finals? We'll know who's playing the finals,

00:31:43.083 --> 00:31:45.763
but then we can make our prediction on who's going to make it through to a grand

00:31:45.763 --> 00:31:48.703
final and win the Brownlow medal and all those sorts of things.

00:31:48.743 --> 00:31:51.083
And even the Norm Smith medal on grand final day.

00:31:51.543 --> 00:31:55.843
We're looking forward to that, Vince. Be good fun. Let's say all the best for,

00:31:55.883 --> 00:31:57.763
I think, the seventh is the first game, isn't it?

00:31:57.863 --> 00:32:01.883
Starting on Thursday the 6th, as a matter of fact. It'll be the first game between

00:32:01.883 --> 00:32:03.983
Brisbane and Geelong up at the Gabba.

00:32:04.223 --> 00:32:07.803
And the next one's on the next Friday. And then the following day on the Friday

00:32:07.803 --> 00:32:10.383
night, you've got Sydney playing Hawthorne in Sydney.

00:32:10.563 --> 00:32:15.363
And then on Saturday, you've got, I think it's the Gold Coast playing Essendon.

00:32:15.483 --> 00:32:18.923
And then on the Sunday, you've got GWS playing Collingwood.

00:32:19.183 --> 00:32:23.423
Very good, Vince. All right. Thanks for that. Terrific. Go Blues. Yeah.

00:32:23.803 --> 00:32:27.743
Well, I'll say, yeah, go Blues, because this could be their surprise year.

00:32:28.403 --> 00:32:31.303
Yeah. I'm not holding my breath. No, I'm not.

00:32:33.043 --> 00:32:38.583
All right, mate. See you next time. Thank you for listening to Why Is It So?

00:32:38.803 --> 00:32:40.863
Make sure you tune in to our next episode.

00:32:41.163 --> 00:32:44.163
Remember, it's your last defence for common sense.